4/14/2022 Update: During public comment tonight, we heard from a commenter that was not thrilled by DVRPC, but trusted the Brookings Institute. As some of you who have emailed me previously know, I too am a fan of the Brookings Institute. Today, they released initial data as it relates to outward migration trends from urban cores from 2019-2021, and how it has effected suburban counties like Montgomery County. Click the image below to learn more.
April 11, 2022
Over the past few months, the Comprehensive Plan Development Team (CPDT) has heard quite a bit from residents on the housing topic. While there is a lot of fear-mongering “the developers are going to change the zoning and bulldoze your houses” gossip floating around on social media, in order to get the full story there are a number of issues that should be considered:
Where is this demand coming from?
Do we really need to add units to the Township? I thought we were fully built out?
How do we know these units will be filled?
Where is this demand coming from?
To understand demand, we need to look at a few considerations: population trends, average number of residents per household, and average birth rates in the Township.
Population Trends
Abington Township is broken up into 15 Census districts, as depicted on the map below (Fig. 1A). 2020 Census data was released in the fall of 2021, and what we found was shocking- our population was 58,502, which was 2,330 more than the 2020 projections compiled by the Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission (DVRPC), 3,098 more than in the 2010 Census. So, what does this mean? Well… we don’t really know yet. The population count garnered in the 2020 Census already exceeded DVRPC’s 2035 projections, and exceeded the relatively stable birth rates as noted in the chart below (Fig. 2), suggesting that the influx isn’t necessarily from childbirths and the development of new families in the township, but rather, people moving here. This is bolstered by the latest 2020-2021 Vintage 2021 population data published by the US Census Bureau, showing a death rate that now exceeds the birth rate in Montgomery County, but net population gains of 3600-4400 which are attributed on migration (only 440+ due to international migration).
There are other variables to be considered in the immediate past, as well. We’ve seen a lot of instability in the past two years, from COVID-19 to increasing crime rates in the city to a war in Ukraine. What does that mean for the future? Again, hard to say, but we should expect an interim spike as urban outflow continues and as we see a small percentage of the estimated 7 million Ukrainian refugees settle right here in Abington, home to a robust Ukrainian population in a state with the second highest Ukrainian population in the country.
Fig. 1A- Map of Abington’s US Census districts, with 2020 counts. Data Source: US Census Bureau.
Fig. 1B- Abington’s population trend since 1890. Notably, despite the 2020 spike, Abington remains below its 1970 peak population, and relatively stable in its population despite outcry to the contrary.
Abington’s Average Household Size
Abington’s average household size, like most other jurisdictions, has been in decline for a very long time. 2020 brought with it a unique situation- the COVID-19 pandemic. We all remember the sudden shuttering of the world, crash of financial markets, and a rapid drop in employment rates. Some of this contributed to the noted slight increase in the number of residents per household (up to 2.62 from 2.55 per Chapter 5). This is another indicator that the 2020 Census data could be a spike in the trends. Personally, I would expect this number to continue to decline post COVID, as it has been doing consistently so from its highs in the 1700s. Modern households simply are not the same size as they were in previous generations.
Average Birth Rate
Abington’s birthrate has remained relatively steady over the past few years, which is a relatively consistent with the decrease noted in Montgomery County as a whole (Fig. 2 below). This 1% rate is not commensurate with the 5.5% population increase seen in Abington from 2010 to 2020, which is likely an indicator that population increase in the Township is caused more by migratory patterns then births.
Do we really need to add units to the Township? I thought we were fully developed?
We keep seeing this term… “the Township is 98% developed.” What does that mean? Its an undefined term that appears to stem from the 2007 Comprehensive Plan update, which I believe relates to housing and the zoning capacity at that time (note, the zoning ordinance was revised in 2017). The latest housing projections from the Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission (DVRPC) reveal a capability for the township to add enough units to accommodate up to 2,682 residents under the current zoning, based on their map below. Based on the current 2020 Census population of 58,502, that puts us at around 95.5% developed.
According to the 2020 US Census, Abington was roughly 94.8% occupied (meaning there is additional capacity beyond what is noted above). This ranged from a low of 84.1% occupied in the southeast corner of the Township to 98.6% occupied in the Roslyn as shown in Fig. 3 below. Neighboring communities generally aligned with these occupancy rates, ranging from 95.03% in Upper Moreland to 92.85% in Cheltenham.
Fig. 2- Abington vs Montgomery County Birth Rates
Fig 3A. Occupancy rates across Abington Township per 2020 US Census data.
Fig. 3B- DVRPC population capacity projections based on current zoning and submitted projects (Rydal Waters, Baederwood, and Mission Green on the Philadelphia/ Abington border).
How do we know these units will be filled?
Hard to say for sure, few things in life are guaranteed. But what we do know is this- in the past 10 years, we’ve seen a population increase of 3,098, a slight household resident increase to 2.62 residents per household (which includes a recent COVID bounce of young people moving back in with parents in 2020), and a only a slight bump in the number of residential units in the Township of 180 units. 2020 Census data showed a vacancy rate of 5.2% overall (Chapter 7.3.2) within the Township, while our neighbors in Upper Dublin and Upper Moreland were showing vacancies of 3.52% and 4.97% respectively , mainly due to the addition of new residential units (Cheltenham’s 2020 vacancy was 7.15%, despite adding very few units over the past 10 years) . Most of our neighbors continue to plan for growth, broaden their tax bases to offset escalating costs that come with inflation (even when inflation is not at record highs), which, in turn, minimizes tax increases associated with inflation on residents. Additionally, we have an aging population- by the mid-2030s, the over-65 generation will outnumber children. The needs and desires of that generation will shift- they will not want to mow lawns, shovel snow, or climb stairs, they will want lower maintenance housing- what are we doing to keep our residents close to their grandchildren here in Abington?
In terms of strictly numbers, we know a few things. We know Abington’s population increased by 3,098 residents. We know Abington added 180 single family detached, single family attached, and multifamily units (Chapter 7, 3-5), and saw the approval of 85 units at Rydal Waters, 244 units at Redstone at Baederwood, and 104 units at Foxcroft (Pavilion), for a total of 509 units in the past 10 years. In terms of raw population, 3,098 residents divided by 2.62 residents per household equals a need for 1,182 units. We’ve added 43% of the needed units over the past 10 years, and we anticipate that need to grow, and the gap to widen without action moving forward. Another reminder, per Chapter 7.3, residents per rental unit = 2.08, vs residents per owner-occupied housing of 2.76, meaning the need could actually be higher. Per DVRPC, under the current zoning, we could accommodate 2,682 residents, which definitely is more than the 1,766 difference in what we’ve accommodated vs what we could accommodate to account for future growth. We’re short on housing now, why not manage growth proactively?
Fig. 4.1- Housing demand in Montgomery County.
What to make of everything I said above…?
Our population has increased more rapidly then anticipated, and housing hasn’t kept pace. We have capacity under the current zoning, but population will continue to increase- the question is, by how much, will the statistics and zoning align, and how do COVID-19 and global politics play into the discussion?
In my next newsletter- what does our current housing stock look like, how has the value increased, how old is it, and does it conform with the desires of the next generation of homebuyers wants, needs, and affordability?